Victory!

In 2004, while speaking on John Kerry’s behalf, former president William Jefferson Clinton said the following:

Now one of Clinton’s laws of politics is this: if one candidate’s trying to scare you, and the other one’s trying to get you to think. If one candidate’s appealing to your fears, and the other one’s appealing to your hopes, you better vote for the person that wants you to think and hope.

Well, last night the politics of hope beat out the politics of fear. In the electoral vote, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois won 364 to 163, carrying red and blue states alike. Obama also won 53% to 46% in the popular vote. Now, that might not seem like much of a victory, but compared to past presidential elections, that’s actually a fairly large margin.

Barack Obama spoke about what he would do for America. Creating green jobs. Creating a universal health care system. Repairing the economy. Lowering taxes on the middle and upper classes. Re-uniting with the world. He spoke to our hopes.

On the other hand, John McCain and some of his supporters spent too much time appealing to people’s feats. Muslim. Associates with terrorists. Association with a crazy black preacher. Will raise your taxes. Will turn America into a socialist nation. Too far to the left.

These claims about Obama being a radical leftist are laughable. Yes, his voting record is far to the left. But, he is also a pragmatist. Listen to him speak. Read his plans. Get a sense of the man, and you will see that he is no revolutionary. He is a pragmatist in the mold of FDR.

But, anyway, now it is November 5. Our next president will be Barack Obama. The Supreme Court will be conserative. The Congress Democratic, but the Republicans will be able to filibuster.  These are all facts. Now, it is time to move on into our future. Certainly, there are some crazies out there who will refuse to listen to voices of reason. And there are those who lack the open-mindedness to work with those across the aisle. But for the rest of us, it is time to work together in creating the America of the future.

Howard Dean’s 50-State Strategy

Well, no matter what party your affiliated with, you’ve got to admit that Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy combined with the momentum for change in this country has made this election more interesting and exciting than most.

In 2004, President Bush won Georgia by 17, Indiana by 21, Montana by 20, North Carolina by 12. Arizona by 11, Virginia by 8, and the list goes on. The point is Bush won by large amounts in all of the above red states. But now, all of the above states are contested. Whereas Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania used to dominate election coverage, now they’ve been joined by a whole host of other states.

What this election has done is throw a long list of states – some of which haven’t been contested for decades – into the swing state mix.

It’s exciting if nothing else, and also goes to show that perhaps Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy has had an effect. The strategy was built on making every state competitive for Democrats, rather than simply conceding certain red states to the Republicans year-after-year. Over the past several years, the Democrats have built up their ground game in a number of states once considered unwinnable, and it seems to have helped.

The key difference in the electoral map from 2004 to 2008 is that very few states are blowouts for the GOP now. Yes, there’s still Idaho and Wyoming, where McCain is up by tremendous amounts. But most other red states have tightened at the very least. Even states that McCain will almost definitely carry (South Carolina and South Dakota come to mind) are closer than usual. Yes, master artist Howard Dean has done it. He has turned red into purple.

How the Electoral Map Looks as America Heads to the Voting Booth

To start with, I really ought to be asleep. But, at the same time, I realized that I have an obligation to post one final look at the polls before the election begins. My blog has covered the election, particularly the electoral map polling, for months, and I will cover the electoral map until there is a declared victor.

So, as we head into Election Day, Barack Obama obviously holds a big lead, but how safe is it?

According to Real Clear Politics, Obama

• leads by 7.6 and 7.3 percentage points respectively in Pennsylvania and New Mexico, two states that are really important to an Obama victory.
• Obama leads by 5.5 and 6.2 percentage points respectively in Colorado and Nevada, two states that could clinch the election for Obama.
• Obama leads by 4.3 and 3.2 percentage points respectively in Virginia and Ohio, two states that could turn a tight victory into a solid victory for Obama, and two states that McCain needs.
• Obama leads by 1.8 percentage points in Florida, a state that had been trending Republican.
• He is trailing by less than 2 percent in Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. if he can win a few of these states, then that would equal a landslide for the Democrat from Illinois and would signal a dramatic moment in this country’s political history.
• And he is down by less than 5 percent in Montana, North Dakota (according to Yahoo’s Political Dashboard), and Arizona. Wins in these states would give Obama a mandate.

Meanwhile, John McCain in order to win:

• Needs to hold on in Arizona, Indiana, and North Carolina.
• Needs to pull off the upset in Ohio and Florida.
• Needs to win two out of three involving Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado OR 
• Needs to win Pennsylvania.
• Ought to hold on to small but traditionally Republican states like Montana and North Dakota.

The polls though are often wrong, which will keep us all on the edge of our seats as we head into the 2008 Presidential Election.