NL East Scouting Report: The New York Mets

Over the next few days, The Evanston Sports Radar will be beginning our 2009 Mets baseball coverage with a team-by-team summary of the National League East. Starting tonight with the New York Mets infield, I will analyze all five teams in the division to give you all some idea of what each team brings to the table this year.

The New York Mets (Part 1 of 2)

Infield: B … The left side of the Mets infield is arguably the best of the game, but the rest of this infield is average.

Catcher: C- … Defensively speaking, Brian Schneider is one of the best, but on offense, he provides very little. His on-base percentage last year was just .339. This is a definitely weak spot for the Mets.

First Base: B … Carlos Delgado is coming off a brilliant 2008 season, when he came back from a rough 2007 to put up excellent stats for the 2008 Mets. He has the potential to hit .280, hit 30 home-runs, and knock in over 100 runs. He also provides a steady veteran glove at first. He brings a lot to the table, except he’s 36 years old which brings up various concerns about a 2009 decline.

Second Base: C+ … Luis Castillo is only 33 years old, and he’s put together some great seasons in the past. He has the potential to hit .300, steal 20 bases, and drive in a fair amount of runs. And he apparently is in good shape this year. That being said, he has a lot to prove after a miserable 2008 season. 

Third Base: A … David Wright is 26 years old and presumably entering his prime. He’s hit over .300 each of the last three seasons. He’s scored at least 100 runs and hit in over 100 runs each of the last two years. He hit 26 homeruns in 2006, 30 in 2007, and 33 in 2008, so there’s a chance that the total could increase this year again. One of the best in the game.

Shortstop: A- … Jose Reyes, at just 25-years-old, is one of the best shortstops in the game. One can easily see him hitting .300 in 2009, with 15 home-runs, 70 RBI, 120 runs. and 60 stolen bases. He’s that good. The only thing that really leaves me concerned is the fact that Jose’s stolen-base number dropped from a career-high 78 in 2007 to just 56 in 2008. And Jose also has a frustrating tendancy to get into slumps. That being said, he’s a potential All-Star and a huge part of this Mets lineup.

Infield Bench: C+ … Fernando Tatis is coming off an excellent comeback year in 2008, and Alex Cora is coming off an impressive 2008 season with the Red Sox. Yet, this infield bench is for the most part unimpressive.

Outfield: B … For all the recent talk concerning the Mets starting rotation, the Mets season could well hang on the fate of the Mets outfield. If Carlos Beltran can rediscover his power stroke, if Daniel Murphy can continue last season’s success, and if Ryan Church can stay healthy, the Mets may be the team to beat in the NL East. The problem is: those are some awfully big “ifs”.

Left Field: B … Daniel Murphy was one of the Mets surprise stars last year. He hit .313 for the Mets in his rookie campaign with an on-base percentage of nearly .400. His pretty swing convinced manager Jerry Manuel to move Murphy to #2 in the lineup. Certainly, he could be a star in the Mets outfield for years to come, yet there is also a risk that Murphy goes through the dreaded sophomore slump in 2009.

Center Field: A- … Carlos Beltran’s glove is priceless in center field. And he has put together three straight seasons of 110+ RBIs for the Mets. He hits for decent average, and stole 25 bases last year. Yet, one must be concerned about his declining power numbers. Despite having more at-bats than in previous years, Beltran hit just 27 home runs last year, compared to 33 in 2007 and 41 in 2006.

Right Field: B- … If Ryan Church could only figure out a way to stay healthy. When healthy, Church is a tremendous asset. He hits for average and has decent pop. Yet, Church still has to show fans that he can keep it up for an entire season.

Outfield Bench: C+ … Fernando Tatis is a talented player to be able to put in off the bench. And Jeremy Reed and Cory Sullivan are decent. Yet, this bench certainly doesn’t strike me as being anything special.

A Change in Focus

Now that the two major Northwestern sports seasons (basketball and football) have come to an end, this blog will change its focus. Now, my blog will be focusing mainly on the Mets. These posts will be complemented by occasional updates concerning NU sports, general posts summarizing what has been happening in the sporting world, and perhaps a few posts concerning politics.

Please let me know if there’s anything you would like to see more of on this site or if you have any other feedback.

Thanks!

An NU Top 10

10. NU Holds off Wisconsin in Remarkable Home Thriller

Northwestern had already played Wisconsin once. Back in early January, the Wildcats traveled to Madison still looking for their first Big Ten win of the season. And, what did they get? Well, they got themselves a good old-fashioned ass-whooping as the Badgers defeated the Wildcats 74 – 45. So, this January 31st game was the Wildcats chance at revenge. And after nearly losing to miserable Indiana at home three nights earlier, this was the Wildcats chance to regain respect in front of over 8,000 fans at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Well, they succeeded with a thrilling 66 – 63 win over a Wisconsin team that ended up making March Madness.

9. NU Does Their Part in Big Ten/ACC Challenge, Easily Defeating Florida

Does anybody besides me and a few sports nerds scattered around the country actually give a damn about the Big Ten/ACC Challenge? Probably not. But this game was still crucial for a young untested Wildcats team. This was the Wildcats first chance to prove they were for real, and they did it in style, defeating then-undefeated Florida State by 14 at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The Wildcats were particularly dominant in the second half, outscoring the Seminoles by a count of 40 to 23. This game also marked Ivan Peljusic’s best game of the season, as he scored 10 points for the victorious Wildcats.

8. Big Road Win at Purdue Keeps NU Tourney Chances Alive

Northwestern had to win if they wanted to keep their March Madness dreams alive, but could they? Against a Purdue team that was ranked in the top 20. Against a Purdue team that had dominated in-conference. In front of a raucous Purdue fan base. Could they? Yes, they could, and yes, they did. Craig Moore, Michael Thompson, and Kevin Coble all scored in double digits to lead the Wildcats to an impressive 64 – 61 victory over a heavily favored Boilermakers team.

7. A Future Inside the Arc

Northwestern relied a little too much on the three ball this year. There were times when the team’s only offense was a Craig Moore three. When times were good, Moore, Thompson, and Coble were all hitting threes and driving with effectiveness. But when the threes stopped falling, the Wildcats had an unfortunately tendency to look lost out there. The future is bright though. Luka Mirkovic had a phenomenal season, showing great potential game after game for the Wildcats. He gets rebounds. He has post-up moves. He can even hit a hook shot once in a while. And he can hit the occasional three to boot. And the much-maligned Kyle Rowley also showed some potential this season. He showed an ability to get position down low. Now, if he can just figure out how to make a lay-up, he and the Wildcats may end up going somewhere. The fact is that while he may not look pretty out there he’s got the size to get things done

6. NU Beats Ranked Minnesota at Home

This is the game when perennial doormat Northwestern decided they wanted to compete in the Big Ten this year. After losing virtually every Big Ten basketball game last year, this year’s Wildcats lost their first few before defeating #17 Minnesota at home. It was a huge upset, one that let fans know that this Wildcats team wasn’t going to roll over and play dead this year unlike years past.

5. NU Snaps Four-Decade Long Streak Winning Big in Indiana

It had been a while. A long while. 41 years to be precise. Yes, for a period of over four decades, the Wildcats lost every single road game they played against the Hoosiers. Their all-time record at Indiana’s Assembly Hall was 0 – 32. It stood as one of the most remarkable, and for Northwestern pathetic, streaks in college basketball history. Now, the streak is over. Yes, on February 25, 2009, Moore, Thompson, and Shurna each scored in double digits to mercifully lead the Wildcats to a 22-point victory over the Hossiers. On this day, the Wildcats played the Hoosiers on Indiana’s home court, and they won.

4. John Shurna’s Game-Winning Three Gives NU Home Win over Ohio State

Half the team had the flu. But nothing could stop the Wildcats on this February night. Not even a determined Jon Diebler who scored 28 and hit a game-tying layup with just 26 seconds remaining. Not even a miserable first half that left the Wildcats trailing by 9. No, this night belonged to John Shurna and the Wildcats. Shurna’s three-pointer with 3.3 seconds remaining proved the difference and sent the home crowd into a frenzy. Northwestern 72, Ohio State 69. An instant Big Ten classic.

3. A Victory for the Ages

After a big victory at home against Minnesota (moment #5), no one gave the Wildcats much of a shot against Michigan State. But Northwestern showed January 21 that they are a team of many surprises. They shocked the world on that night, defeating the Spartans 70 – 63 in East Lansing. This was the first time in team history that the Wildcats were able to beat two ranked teams in a row. A Wildcat classic.

2. Making the NIT

Yes, it may not have ended in a first-round loss to Tulsa, but for a program that has only made the post-season four times, making the NIT was a real accomplishment, and  an honor. The game against Tulsa was tough. The Wildcats found themselves playing against a bigger stronger opponent. Yet, they gave Tulsa a scare, and emerged with their heads held high. An excellent year for Northwestern basketball, hopefully a herald of many good years to come.

1. Making Wildcats Fans Dream Again

After the football team capped off a successful 9 – 3 season with a trip to the Alamo Bowl, I was told to sit back and close my eyes as the basketball team fought their way through another stomach-turning season. Last year, the team got off to a good start, and then lost nearly every Big Ten they played. This year looked like more of the same. A great start. Then four straight Big Ten losses, including a 29-point loss to Wisconsin. And then suddenly, there was a spark. Several sparks. Minnesota. Michigan State. Wisconsin. Purdue. This team gave Wildcats basketball fans reason to believe and to dream. We now have expectations. Hopeful belief that our team has what it takes to win. And not just win, but maybe go farther. Thanks to this year’s Northwestern basketball team for making us believe again, for giving us a dream. Now, let’s hope that future teams can make this newborn dream come true.

Northwestern Suffers Yet Another First-Round Exit

At a funadmental level, basketball is really a very simple game. Each team tries their hardest to get the basketball in the hoop, either by shooting it from afar, or by driving towards the basket and laying it in. Then, when the other team has the ball, you do your best to get in their way, and keep them from getting to the hoop. Simple, right?

Of course, basketball is complicated by all sorts of terms and strategy. 1-3-1 zones and press-breeaks and all sorts of fancy language. Yet, when it comes down to it, sometimes it’s just about which team is better at getting the ball in the hoop.

So it was Thursday at the Conseco Fieldhouse, where the Minnesota Golden Gophers were in control for nearly the entire game, before running away with it at the end against the somewhat underwhelming Northwestern Wildcats. The final score of the game was Minnesota 66, Northwestern 53, and the final score well-reflected the relative talents of the two teams.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have a legitimate offense and a swarming defense. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are one of the shakiest offenses in the Big Ten. The defense is streaky. When the Wildcats are getting turnovers, they’re one of the most effective defenses in the country. Yet, if you can just hold onto the ball, then you should be OK against our defense.

For once, rebounding was not Northwestern’s problem. as the Wildcats actually managed to out-rebound the Golden Gophers 34 – 32. Neither team turned the ball over very much. The Wildcats turned it over 13 times. The Golden Gophers gave it up just 9 times. Minnesota did block the Wildcats 11 times, a deeply significant number, but in the end, this game really came down to making shots.

Minnesota, with that steady offense, managed to shoot 44% from the field. Northwestern, on the other hand, shot just 32.7% from the field. And that was the difference. Minnesota simply did a better job of creating and making their shots. Simply put, they were superior at getting the ball in the hoop, and thus they won.

All season long, Northwestern has relied on two players for scoring: Kevin Coble, the slashing, off-balance shot making, lanky Northwestern forward, and Craig Moore, the pure three-point shooting threat. Both players have their issues. Coble’s crazy shots don’t always fall. But at least Coble can drive and rebound and do other stuff. When Moore’s shots aren’t falling, he’s practically useless.

Well, on Thursday, Coble scored 21 points and got 6 rebounds. He shot 6 of 11 from the field, making 3 of 4 from behind the arc and all 6 shots from the free-throw line. But Craig Moore’s stat line told the story of the game:

8 Points. 5 Rebounds. 3 – 16 Shooting. 2 – 14 Three-Point Shooting. 0 – 0 Free Throws.

Ideally, with Coble scoring 21 points, that should open up Moore, giving him chances to score. Yet, with Moore not able to get anything going, it didn’t matter. Moore was unable to make his shots. Northwestern lost. End of story. And possibly, end of season.

Minnesota VS. Northwestern

Minnesota vs. Northwestern.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers come into this game with a 21 – 9 overall record. Yet, here’s the key statistic. Minnesota is 12 – 0 when playing teams from outside the Big Ten. including an impressive  win over Louisville (currently #9 in RPI). Yet, they went just 9 – 9 in the Big Ten, losing to Northwestern, Purdue, and ending the season on a disappointing loss to Michigan. Minnesota will enter the Big Ten Tournament as the conference’s #8 seed.

And from the other door, enter the Northwestern Wildcats, one of the league’s most unpredictable teams this year. The Wildcats finished with an overall record of 17 – 12. Out of conference, they managed to beat Florida State at home and were nearly able to defeat Butler on the road. In conference, the Wildcats were frankly bizarre. Their overall record was 8 -10. It included impressive wins over nationally ranked Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan State. They also racked up impressive wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin, and almost beat ranked Illinois. Yet, at the same time, the Wildcats got swept by Michigan and suffered embarassing losses to Michigan State and Illinios. The Wildcats enter the tournament ranked #71 in RPI.

The two teams split the season series. Northwestern won the first game at home by a score of 74 to 65. The keys to victory for Northwestern were:

1). The Wildcats competing on the glass. They were outrebounded 31 – 29, a pretty impressive effort for a team that has struggled all year with rebounding.

2). The Wildcats forced turnovers. 19 of them. The Wildcats need to do that today if they want to win.

3). The Wildcats got 42 points from Coble and Moore, but also got 32 from the rest of the team. Minnesota is a good defensive team. They will probably be able to limit Coble and Moore. Thus, the Wildcats will need players like Shurna, Thompson, and Mirkovic to step it up.

In the second game, Minnesota blew Northwestern out by a final score of72 to 45.

1). Rebounds: Minnesota 40, Northwestern 21. Enough said.

2). The Golden Gophers defense was simply dominant. No Wildcats player was able to score in the double digits. Whether it’s Shurna, Thompson, Moore, or Coble, someone is going to have to step up and score today if the Wildcats want to have any hope of winning this game and reaching Madness.

3). Shooting. The Golden Gophers shot over 50% from the field and 7 for 16 from behind the arc. Northwestern, on the other hand, was atrocious. All their shots seemed forced, and they ended up shooting just 14 for 46. Home-court advantage? Maybe. Northwestern must do a better job shooting the basketball in neutral Indiana if they wish to go anywhere.

That’s my game notes. Enjoy the game. I’ll be back afterwards. Thanks and goodnight!