Mets Hope To Draw Power from their Outfield

Last year, one of the Mets main problems was they didn’t hit home runs. The most home runs they got any player was from first baseman Daniel Murphy, who hit 12. Right fielder Jeff Francoeur hit 15, but five of those for the Atlanta Braves. As a team last year, the Mets hit just 95 home runs, last in the major leagues. The next worst team, the San Francisco Giants hit 122. Think home runs aren’t important? The two top teams in home runs, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees ended up playing in the World Series last year.

With a sketchy pitching staff, the Mets will need some home runs to keep them in games. This year, they’re hoping that power will come from their outfield. All three starting outfielders are legitimate home-run threats. Of course, center fielder Carlos Beltran will not be back until sometime in May presumably, but once he does come back, the Mets will have one powerful outfield.

In left field, the Mets will start #44 Jason Bay. Bay hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 runs batted in for the Boston Red Sox last year. 36 marked a career-high for Bay, and it’s unlikely those numbers will carry over to pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Still, Bay should be counted on for 20 to 30 home runs this year, which would represent a vast improvement for the Mets.

In center field, the Mets will eventually start #15 Carlos Beltran, who is one of the best all-around players in baseball. A great fielder, runner, and hitter, Beltran brings it all to the table. At 32 years old, he should still be able to produce, although it remains to be seen how his injury will affect him when he is back on the field. In limited plate appearances last season, Beltran hit .325 with 48 runs batted in, 10 home runs, and 11 stolen bases. Assuming he comes back in late May, the Mets should be able to count on Beltran for 15-20 home runs, 15-20 stolen bases and 80 runs batted in this season.

Finally, in right field, the Mets start one of the more pleasant surprises of last season, #12 Jeff Francoeur. The Francoeur for Church trade is looking like a good one for the Mets. Francoeur hit .311 with 10 home runs and 41 RBIs in just 75 games for the Mets last year. Francoeur, still young at 26 years of age, is a potential 20 home-run and 100-RBI type of guy and is a definite threat at the plate.

On the bench, the Mets have #16 Angel Pagan, who hit .306 and stole 14 bases in 88 games last year. Pagan is a potential .300 hitter, and a great asset to have. He should be a more-than-capable replacement for Beltran early in the season. The Mets also have #19 Gary Matthews, a capable experienced backup, and #25 Fernando Martinez, who is said to be loaded with talent.

All in all, the outfield should be one of the Mets strengths this season. Two very dangerous players in Bay and Beltran. An unpredictable one in Francoeur. And a dark horse in Pagan. They should be a fun group to watch.

A Cautious Optimism Awaits the 2010 Season

After blowing two large division leads in 2007 and 2008 and limping to the finish in 2009, much of the optimism created by the Mets magical run in 2006 has faded away. Too many hopes have been dashed to get really excited about the upcoming season. Yet that being said, the Mets bring a potent offense into the 2010 season, and if they can get some quality outings from the middle of their rotation, the Mets could contend for the Wild Card. At the very least, they ought to improve on last year’s 70-92 record.

Coming up, a preview of the Mets lineup and starting rotation. Here’s hoping for a much improved season at Citi Field.

- Jonah

Stat Check: Angel Pagan

.309 Batting Average, 18 Runs Batted In, 7 Triples, 23 Runs, 8 Stolen Bases, 1,000 Fielding Percentage

All this in just 37 games. Just 136 at-bats.

Wednesday’s 3 for 4 against the Cardinals marked his fourth multi-hit game in a week. Pagan is on fire, and at the ripe age of 28 years, Pagan figures to be a valuable part of the Mets present and future.

After Marvelous May, Mets Hope For Continued Success in June

After a 19 – 9 May, the New York Mets begin the month of June with a 7-game road trip through Pittsburgh and Washington. All of these games should be winnable. Pittsburgh is 22 – 28 on the season, with a rather mediocre 12 – 11 home record. Washington is currently the worst team in the majors, with a 13 – 36 record (7 – 16 at home).

Things get a little tougher when the Mets return to New York. After an off day, they have a crucial three game home series against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are currently a half game ahead of the Mets in the NL East. On Friday, the Mets head up to Yankee Stadium for the first half of this year’s Subway Series against the New York Yankees (29 – 21, 14 – 9 at home) .

On June 15, the Mets have another Monday off-day before heading to Baltimore for a three-game series against the last-place Orioles. The Orioles are 23  – 28 on the year, with a 16 – 13 record at Camden Yards.

Then, on June 19, the Mets begin a pivotal 10-game homestand with a weekend series against the Tampa Bay Rays (25 – 28 overall, 12 – 17 road). This is followed by a four-game series against the  St. Louis Cardinals (29 – 21, 12 – 12 road), who currently have a half-game lead over the Mets in the NL Wild Card standings. The series then concludes with a three game weekend series against the Yankees. The last game of the series will be featured on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.

The Mets will end the month in Milwaukee, where the Brewers are 16 – 9 on the year.

Player Profile: Wilson Valdez

Mets fans watching the series against the Florida Marlins this weekend could be forgiven for not knowing who was playing shortstop. That’s because with Jose Reyes and Alex Cora still on the disabled list, the Mets have brought up a new infielder, Wilson Valdez.

Valdez is a 31 year old journeyman from the Dominican Republic. He never went to college. He wasn’r drafted either. He first broke into the big leagues in 2004 when he got 43 at-bats for the Chicago White Sox. Since then, he has played for the Mariners, Padres, and Dodgers. Now, he is a New York Met.

He made his Mets debut May 27 against Washington and made an appearance in all three games against the Marlins. He is two for seven on the season with one walk and one run scored. In the field, he has yet to make an error.

This brief stint in the majors figures to end soon for Valdez. Alex Cora is set to return Tuesday, presumably meaning reduced playing time for Valdez. And then, Reyes is expected to return later this week assuming his rehab stint goes without incident. When Reyes does return, it seems likely that Valdez will be sent back down to the minors.

Off-Day Notes: The Braves, The NL Wild Card, Inside the Mets Dugout, and What Lies Ahead

An Eye on the Braves

After getting swept in San Francisco, the Atlanta Braves began their four-game series in Arizona tonight with yet another loss. This time, the Braves were stifled by Diamondbacks ace Dan Haren, and ended up losing 5 – 1. They are now three and a half games behind the first-place New York Mets.

The NL Wild-Card Scene

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Chicago Cubs 2 – 1 at Wrigley Field tonight, guided by seven beautiful innings from Randy Wolf and a 2-inning save from Ramon Transoco. The Cubs are now 23 – 22, three and a half games out of the wild card lead. The Giants and Braves are also three and half back.

None of the other wild-card contenders played tonight. Milwaukee remains in the lead, holding a half game lead over the Reds, a one game lead over the Phillies, a three game lead over the Padres, and a three and half game lead over the Cubs, Braves, and Giants. If the Mets were to fall out of first place, they would be just one half game behind the Brew Crew.

In the Mets Dugout

Carlos Beltran has hit in six consecutive games…Daniel Murphy’s three-hit, five-RBI performance Wednesday was his first multi-hit performance since an April 19 home game against the Brewers. The performance raised his batting average 16 percentage points from .246 to .262…In the bullpen, Pedro Feliciano hasn’t given up an earned run since May 2. Since that date, he has pitched eight and two-thirds innings, giving up just seven hits and one walk. His WHIP is 0.96 this year and opposing hitters are hitting just .208 off Feliciano.

Florida Marlins @ New York Mets

Friday’s matchup pits Florida Marlins starter Sean West against Mets starter Mike Pelfrey. This will be West’s second appearance for the Marlins. He gave up two earned runs in five innings against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 23. Pelfrey, meanwhile, has given up three or less runs in six consecutive starts…Saturday will be a big day for Tim Redding, who will try to show the Mets that he deserves to stay n the big leagues. He has made two starts thus far for the Mets, giving up six runs to the Red Sox his last time out. His job is in serious jeopardy now that Oliver Perez is healthy again. Redding will oppose Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who is 3 – 1 with a 2.67 ERA this season…And on Sunday, Chris Volstad (4 – 3, 3.69 ERA) of the Marlins will take on John Maine (4 – 3, 4.18 ERA) of the Mets. Volsted has given up 18 earned runs in his last 5 starts. Maine gave up just one runs in his last start against the Washington Nationals.

The Marlins are coming off a big series win in Philadelphia after they spent most of May in free fall. They are 22 – 26 overall, five and half back of the Brewers in the Wild Card Chase.

The Mets Off-Day Report: Dropping the Ball

The New York Mets made six errors in their three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Five of them came in Monday’s game. One came in Tuesday’s game. Rather than an aberration, this just continued a disturbing trend for the Mets, who have made the fourth-most errors in the major leagues. The Mets have made 32 errors. Compare that to the Phillies, who have made just 11.

The only three teams to make more errors than the Mets are the Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, and the Washington Nationals, all of whom are under .500 and struggling.

In terms of individual errors, David Wright leads the Mets with six errors, which also ties him for second among all major league third basemen. Jose Reyes has made five errors and Luis Castillo has made four, both numbers that are higher than ordinary for players at their positions. In the outfield, Daniel Murphy has had a terrible time of it. He is tied for the league lead in errors and has one of the worst fielding percentages in the major leagues.  Essentially, for any position, if you search for who’s made the most errors, a Met will be high on that list. It’s an embarassment, and something the Mets will need to work on.

There are reports that Jerry Manuel is going to start having the Mets take infield before games, and that’s probably a good idea. The Mets will need to cut out the errors, especially this weekend as they head to Fenway to take on a very tough Red Sox team.

NL East: The Upcoming Week (Tuesday – Sunday)

New York Mets (tied for first place) – 2 @ LA Dodgers (27 – 13), 3 @ Boston (22 – 16)

Philadelphia Phillies (tied for first place) – 3 @ Cincinnati (20 - 17), 3 @ NY Yankees (21 – 17)

Atlanta Braves (2.5 games back) – 3 vs. Colorado (15 – 22),  3 vs. Toronto (27 – 14)

Florida Marlins (3 games back) - 3 vs. Arizona (14 – 23) , 3 vs. Tampa Bay (20 – 20)

Washington Nationals (8.5 games back) - 3 vs. Pittsburgh (17 – 21), 3 vs. Baltimore (16 – 22)

OVERALL OUTLOOK: The Mets probably have the toughest schedule of the bunch, and thus this a good chance for Philadelphia to take advantage and perhaps seize first place from the Mets. The Marlins have a fairly easy schedule this week, so this might be a chance for them to get back in the swing of things.

NL East Scouting Report: The New York Mets

Over the next few days, The Evanston Sports Radar will be beginning our 2009 Mets baseball coverage with a team-by-team summary of the National League East. Starting tonight with the New York Mets infield, I will analyze all five teams in the division to give you all some idea of what each team brings to the table this year.

The New York Mets (Part 1 of 2)

Infield: B … The left side of the Mets infield is arguably the best of the game, but the rest of this infield is average.

Catcher: C- … Defensively speaking, Brian Schneider is one of the best, but on offense, he provides very little. His on-base percentage last year was just .339. This is a definitely weak spot for the Mets.

First Base: B … Carlos Delgado is coming off a brilliant 2008 season, when he came back from a rough 2007 to put up excellent stats for the 2008 Mets. He has the potential to hit .280, hit 30 home-runs, and knock in over 100 runs. He also provides a steady veteran glove at first. He brings a lot to the table, except he’s 36 years old which brings up various concerns about a 2009 decline.

Second Base: C+ … Luis Castillo is only 33 years old, and he’s put together some great seasons in the past. He has the potential to hit .300, steal 20 bases, and drive in a fair amount of runs. And he apparently is in good shape this year. That being said, he has a lot to prove after a miserable 2008 season. 

Third Base: A … David Wright is 26 years old and presumably entering his prime. He’s hit over .300 each of the last three seasons. He’s scored at least 100 runs and hit in over 100 runs each of the last two years. He hit 26 homeruns in 2006, 30 in 2007, and 33 in 2008, so there’s a chance that the total could increase this year again. One of the best in the game.

Shortstop: A- … Jose Reyes, at just 25-years-old, is one of the best shortstops in the game. One can easily see him hitting .300 in 2009, with 15 home-runs, 70 RBI, 120 runs. and 60 stolen bases. He’s that good. The only thing that really leaves me concerned is the fact that Jose’s stolen-base number dropped from a career-high 78 in 2007 to just 56 in 2008. And Jose also has a frustrating tendancy to get into slumps. That being said, he’s a potential All-Star and a huge part of this Mets lineup.

Infield Bench: C+ … Fernando Tatis is coming off an excellent comeback year in 2008, and Alex Cora is coming off an impressive 2008 season with the Red Sox. Yet, this infield bench is for the most part unimpressive.

Outfield: B … For all the recent talk concerning the Mets starting rotation, the Mets season could well hang on the fate of the Mets outfield. If Carlos Beltran can rediscover his power stroke, if Daniel Murphy can continue last season’s success, and if Ryan Church can stay healthy, the Mets may be the team to beat in the NL East. The problem is: those are some awfully big “ifs”.

Left Field: B … Daniel Murphy was one of the Mets surprise stars last year. He hit .313 for the Mets in his rookie campaign with an on-base percentage of nearly .400. His pretty swing convinced manager Jerry Manuel to move Murphy to #2 in the lineup. Certainly, he could be a star in the Mets outfield for years to come, yet there is also a risk that Murphy goes through the dreaded sophomore slump in 2009.

Center Field: A- … Carlos Beltran’s glove is priceless in center field. And he has put together three straight seasons of 110+ RBIs for the Mets. He hits for decent average, and stole 25 bases last year. Yet, one must be concerned about his declining power numbers. Despite having more at-bats than in previous years, Beltran hit just 27 home runs last year, compared to 33 in 2007 and 41 in 2006.

Right Field: B- … If Ryan Church could only figure out a way to stay healthy. When healthy, Church is a tremendous asset. He hits for average and has decent pop. Yet, Church still has to show fans that he can keep it up for an entire season.

Outfield Bench: C+ … Fernando Tatis is a talented player to be able to put in off the bench. And Jeremy Reed and Cory Sullivan are decent. Yet, this bench certainly doesn’t strike me as being anything special.

Exit Sandman?

“Enter Sandman” will not be heard on the Shea Stadium loudspeakers for quite some time. It came as a shock, but now the Mets will have to cope with the fact that their All-Star closer will be out for the rest of 2008 and will possibly miss all of 2009 as well.

He has vowed to return to the Major Leagues, but who knows if he will be able to, and who knows if he will return to the Mets. If he does return in 2010, he would return as a free agent. By then, the Mets may have found a new closer. So, for all intents and purposes, Wagner’s career in New York might be over.

Wagner had mixed success in New York. He came to New York with the highest of expectations. The year before his arrival here, he had posted a 1.51ERA with the Philadelphia Phillies despite playing home games in an extremely pitcher-unfriendly Citizens Bank Park. At pitcher-friendly Shea, one could only imagine what he would do. And Wagner has always thrived in the spotlight. So, it figured that New York and Wagner would be a match made in heaven.

And so, his two and a half years here were somewhat of a disappointment. He finished 2006 with an ERA of 2.24 and 5 blown saves, a good year for most closers, but a slightly down year for him. In the postseason, he did a great job in the Mets three-game NLDS sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but struggled in the Mets NLCS series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Overall in the 2006 playoffs, while he did manage to convert all three of his save opportunities. he also racked up a horrendous 9.53ERA. In 2007, he had a respectable but hardly dominant ERA of 2.63 and blew a frustating 7 blown saves. 2007 was particularly rough, as Wagner and the bullpen were a big part of the Mets September collapse. And this year, he started off in dominanting fashion, but then had some pretty rough stretches as summer rolled around.

From Wagner’s perspective, the injury comes at a terrible time. He was just starting to prosper again. He had posted great numbers in July. And the team was looking better too. For a man who has never won a World Series ring before, it must be tough to get injured just when it looks like your team might be able to win the championship.

From the Mets perspective, it’s a very rough injury to take. This bullpen has really struggled without him. And now, the Mets will have to think about who they will want closing big postseason games, if they’re fortunate enough to make the playoffs. John Maine seems like a good candidate, especially with that great high heat of his. Maine has indicated that he might be interested in closing games. Yet, let’s not forget that closing is a lot different than starting, and it remains to be seen whether Maine would be able to do the job. After all, not everyone can do what John Smoltz did. And Maine is not nearly as good as Smoltz anyway.

Finally, though, from a personal perspective, it’s hard to believe that Wagner’s time here might be finished. Unlike many Mets fans, I liked Billy a lot. I didn’t necessairily trust him to close the game, but I liked him all the same. He was fun to watch. And, I liked the attitude he brought to the field. I liked his competitiveness and his will to win. And I liked the idea of this little guy from small-town Virginia being able to throw 99MPH in the big leagues, and have success on one of the world’s biggest stages, New York.

Maybe, he’ll wear the Mets uniform again. But if not, then let this be a sad and reluctant goodbye. Best of luck to Wagner, and my thanks for the high times he brought us.