An Apology and a Win

First, an apology. Work got a little crazy for me these past couple weeks, and as a result, I never did post on the Ohio State and Minnesota games. My sincere apologies about that. But if I can forgive the Northwestern Wildcats for that terrible effort in Minnesota, then I’m sure you can all find it in your hearts to forgive me. Moving on…

A Tight Game Turns Into A Blowout

A lot happened in the four decades since  Northwestern last won at Indiana. The endof the Vietnam War. The resignation of Richard Milhous Nixon. Stagflation. The fall of the shah. The end of the Cold War. And so much more. But finally, after 35 consecutive road losses and four decades. the Northwestern Wildcats were able to end the losing streak, defeating the Hoosiers decisively at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

Northwestern came into the game with the much better record. 14 wins. 11 losses. An unimpressive 5 – 9 record in conference. Yet, this 5 – 9 record masks some truly impressive conference wins, including home wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota and a crucial road win at Michigan State. It has been a surprisingly good season for Northwestern, a bright year that stands out from a gloomy history of defeat.

Meanwhile, Indiana came into the game with 6 wins and 20 losses, including a horrific 1 – 13 record in conference play. It has been a terrible year for Indiana basketball, one that stands out from what has historically been a glorious basketball program.

The first meeting between these teams took place on January 28, 2009 at Northwestern’s Welsh-Ryan Arena. In that game, the Hoosiers started out on fire, grabbing an early lead. Then, Northwestern went on a run, and had a nine point with just seven minutes remaining. But it wouldn’t come easy for the Wildcats, who had to stave off a last Hoosier comeback before finally triumphing 77  – 75.

The first half of Wednesday’s game in Bloomington, Indiana was eerily similar to the team’s first meeting. The fast start from Indiana. The comeback by Northwestern. A close game at halftime. This time Northwestern led 30 – 25.

After ending the first half on a 23 – 10 run, Northwestern simply exploded in the second half, putting together one of their best offensive and defensive performances of the season. The Wildcats scored 45 in the second half. 15 of those 45 points coming off Indiana turnovers. The Wildcats also benefited from hot shooting, hitting over 65% of their shots from the field and draining 6 of 7 three-point attempts in the second half.

In the end, it wasn’t even close. The Hoosiers’ four-decade long streak over Northwestern is part of history now. The Wildcats made a statement Wednesday night. They didn’t just win. They destroyed. Northwestern 75, Indiana 53.

The Wildcats got strong efforts from a variety of players Wednesday night. Five Wildcats (Thompson, Coble, Nash, Moore, and Shurna) scored in the double digits. Craig Moore was particularly impressive, scoring 17, making 5 of 7 from behind the arc. The freshman were once again outstanding for Northwestern. Shurna had another strong game, finishing with 11 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Meanwhile, Luka Mirkovic had another excellent game in the post, scoring 8 and getting 7 rebounds.

Indiana got a nice game from Kyle Taber, who scored 12 and grabbed 6 rebounds. On the other hand, Verdell Jones III was awful, notching more turnovers (7) than points (2). Tough game for the Hoosiers.

And now you have this Wildcats team, with just the slightest shot of reaching March Madness, but a fairly good shot at making the NIT. The next game, the Wildcats last home game of the year against an Iowa team that barely defeated the Wildcats in Iowa City, is huge. It will surely be an interesting fight to the finish.

Northwestern Keeps on Rolling, Defeating Chicago State 75 – 63

The Northwestern Wildcats managed to take care of business Wednesday night, defeating the Chicago State Cougars 75 – 63 in front of a small crowd of just over 3,000 at Northwestern’s Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Northwestern got off to a somewhat sloppy start Wednesday and only led by six points at the half, but after a dominant run to begin the second half, the game’s outcome was never in doubt. Northwestern led by as much as 22 in the second half and although a late comeback by Chicago State made the final score much more respectable, the Wildcats clearly controlled the game.

That being said, there were plenty of issues with the way Northwestern played Wednesday. The Wildcats were particularly sloppy in the first half, turning it over 8 times and shooting only 38.5%. Meanwhile, in the second half, the Wildcats were outscored in the paint 18 to 6, which serves as another reminder that Northwestern will really need Rowley and Mirkovic to step up if they want to go anywhere big.

In terms of individual performances, the stars certainly came out to play Wednesday night. John Catrell played a phonomenal game for the Cougars, notching 29 points on 12-of-18 shooting and adding 5 rebounds. David Holston also had a solid game for Chicago State, getting 22 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds. Meanwhile, Craig Moore and Kevin Coble each played solid games for the Wildcats, with Moore notching 19 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and Coble getting 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. Definitely a solid comeback game for Coble after the mediocre effort he put out in the Wisconsin game.

Around the Big Ten

Meanwhile, two interesting games in the rest of the Big Ten. Indiana picked up an upset against Iowa, defeating the Hawkeyes 68 to 60. Once again, Iowa proved to be a beatable team, which bodes well for the Wildcats, who will look to improve on their 2 – 5 road record this Saturday in Iowa City.  Meanwhile, #13 Michigan State asserted their Big Ten superiority, crushing #19 Minnesota 76 to 47.

Ratings Percentage Index aside (as of Monday, Northwestern was 56 and Minnesota was 22), it seems that Northwestern is at about the same level as the Golden Gophers, and should stand a decent chance of winning their February 22 game in Minnesota.

Big Ten Evening Roundup – January 29

#9 Michigan State Spartans 71 @ Iowa Hawkeyes 56

Michigan State guard Lucas Kalin was nearly perfect Thursday night as he scored 24 points to lead the Spartans to a 71 – 56 victory over Iowa. He shot 9 of 13 from the field, had 4 assists, and only turned the ball over once in his 33 minutes on the court. Once again, the Spartans benefited from some strong individual rebounding efforts, including 11 from Goran Suton and 10 from Delvon Roe.

What this means for NU: Northwestern is done playing Michigan State, as far as the regular season is concerned. But the Wildcats do have two games coming up against the Iowa Hawkeyes, the first on February 7 in Iowa City and the latter on February 28 at home in Evanston.

Iowa looked pretty tough tonight. They actually managed to out-rebound Michigan State in the second half, which could mean trouble for the Wildcats, who have struggled from rebounding woes all season long.

Yet overall, Iowa and Northwestern would seem to be pretty evenly matched at this point. Definitely, the two games against Iowa are ones that the Wildcats can win.

#20 Illinois Fighting Illini 36 @ #24 Minnesota Golden Gophers 59

The Minnesota Golden Gophers followed a tough road win at Indiana with a dominant effort at home Thursday against the #20-ranked Fighting Illini Lawrence Westbrook led all scorers with 15 points and Ralph Sampson III. added 10 points and 7 rebounds to help lead the Golden Gophers to victory.

Turnovers weren’t the problem for the Fighting Illini. In fact, they only turned it over nine times. Instead, the problem for Illinois was that their offense simply lacked any sort of life. The Fighting Illini drained only 15 field goals in 51 tries (that’s a less than 30% shooting percentage), and they only got to the line seven times in the entire game. To make things worse, Illinois also got out-rebounded by the Golden Gophers.

What This Means for NU: Northwestern will host Illinois February 12 and play in Minnesota on February 22.

After Thursday night’s games, the Illinois game suddenly looks a much more winnable for the Wildcats. I mean if the Fighting Illini could only manage 36 points against the Golden Gophers, how can they expect to have much success against Northwestern’s excellent 1-3-1 zone defense. Minnesota, did on the other hand, look good Thursday. Yet, the Minnesota game is also winnable for the Wildcats. Minnesota has been highly inconsistent this season. They’ve lost to Purdue (a team that Northwestern nearly beat) and Michigan State (Wildcats and Spartans split their series), and barely beat Indiana (a team that Northwestern also edged). And Northwestern did beat the Golden Gophers earlier this season.

Next Game for Northwestern: Wisconsin @ Northwestern – 7:00 pm CT

Northwestern Squeaks Out Win Over Indiana

Following the Wildcats’ lethargic loss at Michigan, Northwestern came back to Evanston for a three-game home stand at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Indiana. Wisconsin. And Chicago State.

The Wisconsin game was supposed to be the only real challenge of the three, but last night the Northwestern Wildcats trailed the Indiana Hoosiers for much of the first half, and nearly let a large second-half lead slip away, before Craig Moore finally hit a set of free throws that put Northwestern on top 77 – 75.

Northwestern hardly played a perfect game, turning the ball over 19 times. Certainly if they want to beat Wisconsin, they will have to turn it over far less. (One of the big keys to the Wildcats season-defining victory over #8 Michigan State was that they only turned it over 7 times all game). The team also was sloppy from the free-throw line, making only 13 of 20 (they went 15 of 19 in the Michigan State game).

So, in the end it wasn’t the best of Northwestern basketball, but it was classic Wildcats style. Excellent shooting behind the arc (12 out of 23). Forcing a lot of turnovers (Indiana turned it over 22 times). Got heavily out rebounded again. But in the end, they emerged with a win.

Clearly, this isn’t last season. This is a better Wildcats team, but a big test of just how much better this team has gotten will be Saturday night against Wisconsin.

Approximately two weeks ago, the Wildcats took an absolute beating (74 – 45) at the hands of the Badgers. Since then, they picked up momentous victories against the ranked Spartans and Golden Gophers, as well as the unranked Hoosiers. So, will this Wisconsin-Northwestern game be any different? A season hangs on the answer.

Player Info

After struggling against Michigan, Craig Moore had a big 21-point outburst against Indiana, going 5 for 9 from behind the arc. Larry Coble had a huge second half, finishing with 19 points (13 in the 2nd half). Michael “Juice” Thompson scored 15, also adding 5 assists. And Jeremy Nash had another nice all-around game, scoring 10, and adding 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals.

On a less positive note, Kyle Rowley got 7 points in 21 minutes of game time, yet only managed to get 2 rebounds. For a 7-0, 280-pound big guy to only get 2 rebounds is a little bit embarrassing, and Northwestern could really use better rebounding efforts from Rowley in the future as the Big Ten conference schedule continues.

Howard Dean’s 50-State Strategy

Well, no matter what party your affiliated with, you’ve got to admit that Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy combined with the momentum for change in this country has made this election more interesting and exciting than most.

In 2004, President Bush won Georgia by 17, Indiana by 21, Montana by 20, North Carolina by 12. Arizona by 11, Virginia by 8, and the list goes on. The point is Bush won by large amounts in all of the above red states. But now, all of the above states are contested. Whereas Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania used to dominate election coverage, now they’ve been joined by a whole host of other states.

What this election has done is throw a long list of states – some of which haven’t been contested for decades – into the swing state mix.

It’s exciting if nothing else, and also goes to show that perhaps Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy has had an effect. The strategy was built on making every state competitive for Democrats, rather than simply conceding certain red states to the Republicans year-after-year. Over the past several years, the Democrats have built up their ground game in a number of states once considered unwinnable, and it seems to have helped.

The key difference in the electoral map from 2004 to 2008 is that very few states are blowouts for the GOP now. Yes, there’s still Idaho and Wyoming, where McCain is up by tremendous amounts. But most other red states have tightened at the very least. Even states that McCain will almost definitely carry (South Carolina and South Dakota come to mind) are closer than usual. Yes, master artist Howard Dean has done it. He has turned red into purple.

A Helpful Study Aid for the 2008 Election

Here is a chart I made to help describe this upcoming election. If it helps you see what’s going on more clearly, then great. If not, feel free to ignore it.

It’s essentially just a chart of battleground states though, with a middle point showing where the big 270 electoral vote barrier is.

BATTLEGROUND STATES (10% Difference or Less)	Obama	McCain	Lead
Iowa	51.3	41.8	+ 9.5
Oregon	49.8	40.8	+ 9
New Jersey	50.4	41.8	+ 8.6
Washington	49.8	41.8	+ 8
Wisconsin	50.3	42.8	+ 7.5
New Mexico	49.8	42.5	+ 7.3
Michigan	49.1	42.1	+ 7
Virginia	49.9	45.1	+ 4.8
270 VOTE BARRIER:     OBAMA WINS UNLESS HE LOSES ALL THE BELOW STATES AND ONE OR MORE OF THE ABOVE STATES
Ohio	48.9	44.9	+ 4
Colorado	49.3	45.3	+ 4
Florida	48.3	45.3	+ 3
Nevada	49.6	46.6	+ 3
North Carolina	48.2	47.6	+ .6
Missouri	47.8	47.5	+ .3
Indiana	46.0	48.5	+ 2.5
West Virginia	42.3	48.0	+ 5.7
Georgia	43.5	51.5	+ 8

CHART NOTES

States in Blue represent states Kerry carried in 2004.

States in Red represent states Bush carried in 2004.

Percentages in Blue represent Obama leads according to the most recent RCP polls presented on Yahoo’s Political Dashboard.

Percentages in Red represent McCain leads according to the most recent RCP polls presented on Yahoo’s Political Dashboard.

Obama Rides High in Recent Polling

Obama is looking great in the polls. His leads in Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire has grown over the past week. And he has recently taken the lead in North Carolina, Florida, and Missouri. All the while, he’s been holding onto significant leads in Colorado and Iowa.

Just take a look at some recent headlines.

• New Poll Shows Obama Widening Lead Over McCain in Virginia (WSLS News Channel 10 Roanoke)
• CNN/Time: Obama Makes Gains in NC, OH, WI, IN, NH
• Poll: Obama Holds Slim Lead Over McCain in Florida (The Miami Herald)
• Obama Leads McCain by 15 Points in Pennsylvania (WJAC 6 Johnstown)
• Obama leads in Ohio, Wisconsin Polls, is tied with McCain in Indiana (Akron Beacon Journal)

In other words, Obama is looking awfully good.

THE CHANGES FROM 2004 TO 2008: WHAT BUSH STATES OBAMA HOPES TO WIN

And here’s a list of what Bush states Democrats might be able to turn blue this year.

Pretty Sure Democratic Pick-Ups: Iowa, New Mexico

Probable Democratic Pick-Ups: Virginia, Ohio, Colorado

Possible Democratic Pick-Uos: Florida, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina

And the Winner Is…

After months and months of campaigning, this 2008 election remains hotly contested. In a poll of likely voters around the nation, Obama has retaken a slight lead. But as we have learned in past elections, it is the state-by-state electoral vote, not the national popular vote that matters. And right now, the electoral map is as tight as ever.

According to Yahoo’s Political Dashboard, if the election were held today, Obama would win. The Dashboard currently gives him 250 electoral votes, and that’s not counting Maryland, Delaware, Hawaii and DC, all of which will certainly end up voting for Obama. That would give him over 270 votes, which would mean sweet, sweet victory for the Dems. And the dashboard also didn’t count West Virginia, which could end up in the Obama category.

But there’s a long way to go. Both candidates have a lot to worry about.

Obama currently leads in Colorado by 3, but that could change in a hurry. And Democrats also have to wonder about a surprisingly narrow lead in Minnesota. And of course, Pennsylvania is close (Obama leads by approximately a percentage point there), and could remain tight to the finish. And make no mistake about it, Pennsylvania is a state the Democrats desperately need. They don’t actually need Ohio, but they do need the big PA.

McCain meanwhile has to keep a couple of traditionally Republican states with a lot of electoral votes from turning blue. His lead in Indiana is just over two percentage points. So, that’s 11 electoral votes hanging in the balance. His lead in Virginia is also just over two percentage points. That’s another 13 electoral votes. And his lead in Nevada is small as well. Winning those states would get McCain close to the 270 votes he needs. But this is all assuming that Ohio, with it’s 20 electoral votes, goes Republican like last year. And as it currently stands, McCain barely leads in Ohio, with RCP polls giving him 46.6% to Obama’s 45.1%.

The point is both candidates have vulnerabilities, and subseqently, strong needs. Obama needs Pennsylvania. And if he’s not going to win Ohio, then he’ll need to win in Colorado, or steal some combination of Nevada, Virginia, and/or Indiana. For McCain, the task is simple. Win Ohio! And hold onto those Bush states.

We’ll do another update later on, but for now, that’s how things stand on the electoral map.